Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
